Hollinger's Playoff Oddities

With less than twenty games left in this shortened NBA season, it's not at all too early to keep an eye on the conference standings.  And how 'bout those Knicks?!  More thoughts to come on what's been going on at the Garden...  In the meantime, they may be just barely in the playoff picture at the moment, but based on talent and recent form, their spot seems more secure.  How secure?  Let's see what number John Hollinger can put to that.

For the unfamiliar, Hollinger is one of the foundational and, as a longtime employee of ESPN, probably most successful figures in advanced basketball statistics.  As a quick comment on basketball's stats movement (another topic I may pick up later), I think there's a lot that can be gained, but I'm skeptical that you can rely on one metric (Hollinger's PER, Berri's Win Shares, etc.) to capture a player's impact.  It's always an interesting perspective, though.

Hollinger's most pertinent offering to the matter at hand are his Playoff Odds. There, through his mathematical wizardry, the Knicks gain a spot in the standings, as do the Bucks, at the expense of the projected-number-9 Celtics.  A hot Knicks team in the playoffs, and age finally catching up with the Celtics?  Why look those gift horses in the mouths?

A closer look reveals an interesting statistical anomaly, though.  Teams 1 through 6 about locked into the postseason, and 10-15 essentially eliminated.  That leaves those final three, about equally-matched teams to fight it out for two spots.  Not only that, but individually, each team is actually likely to make the playoffs, with about a two-thirds chance.  It doesn't negate Hollinger's math, and I'm sure it's not even unprecedented.  It's just something that I've found intriguing.  Obviously there's a lot of ball left to play.